Journal of Public Health Medicine 25:325-335 (2003)
© Faculty of Public Health 2003; all rights reserved.
Systematic review of the use and value of computer simulation modelling in population health and health care delivery
David Fone, Consultant in Public Health Medicine, Hon. Senior Lecturer in Department of Epidemiology and Public Health1,2,
Sandra Hollinghurst, Health Economist (Public Health)1
Mark Temple, Consultant in Public Health Medicine3
Alison Round, Senior Lecturer in Epidemiology and Public Health, Consultant in Public Health Medicine2,4
Nathan Lester, Research Officer1
Alison Weightman, Information Resources Manager, Library Services2
Katherine Roberts, Information Officer, Library Services2
Edward Coyle, Director of Public Health1
Gwyn Bevan, Reader in Policy Analysis5
Stephen Palmer, Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health2
1 Gwent Health Authority, Mamhilad House, Mamhilad Park Estate, Pontypool NP4 0YP
2 University of Wales College of Medicine, Heath Park, Cardiff CF14 4XN
3 Bro Taf Health Authority, Temple of Peace and Health, Cathays Park, Cardiff CF1 3NW
4 N&E Devon Health Authority, Dean Clarke House, Southernhay East, Exeter EX1 1PQ
5 London School of Economics and Political Science, Finsbury Tower, 103–105 Bunhill Row, London EC1 8TG
Address correspondence to David Fone, at National Public Health Service, Mamhilad Park Estate, Pontypool NP4 0YP. E-mail: david.fone{at}nphs.wales.nhs.uk
Background The objective of the review was to evaluate the extent, quality and value of computer simulation modelling in population health and health care delivery.
Methods A narrative systematic review was carried out of world literature from 1980 to 1999, searching Medline, INSPEC, Embase, HealthSTAR, Science Citation Index, CINAHL, MathSci, INFORMS Online and SIGLE databases, and researchers in the field were contacted. Papers were included if they contained a computer simulation model of individuals in a stochastic system and the topic or setting related to population health or health service delivery.
Results A total of 182 papers met the inclusion criteria. Simulation modelling has been undertaken in a wide range of health care topic areas, including hospital scheduling and organization, communicable disease, screening, costs of illness and economic evaluation. However, the quality of published papers was variable and few reported on the outcomes of implementation of models, so that the value of modelling could not be assessed.
Conclusion Simulation modelling is a powerful method for modelling both small and large populations to inform policy makers in the provision of health care. It has been applied to a wide variety of health care problems. Although the number of modelling papers has grown substantially over recent years, further research is required to assess the value of modelling.
Keywords: systematic review, simulation modelling, health care
CiteULike 
Connotea 
Del.icio.us What's this?
This article has been cited by other articles:
|
|
 |
|
  G. M. Edward, S. F. Das, S. G. Elkhuizen, P. J. M. Bakker, J. A. M. Hontelez, M. W. Hollmann, B. Preckel, and L. C. Lemaire Simulation to analyse planning difficulties at the preoperative assessment clinic Br. J. Anaesth., February 1, 2008; 100(2): 195 - 202. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|
|
|
 |
|
 S G Elkhuizen, S F Das, P J M Bakker, and J A M Hontelez Using computer simulation to reduce access time for outpatient departments Qual. Saf. Health Care, October 1, 2007; 16(5): 382 - 386. [Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]
|
|