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Journal of Public Health Advance Access published online on August 13, 2009
Journal of Public Health, doi:10.1093/pubmed/fdp082
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© The Author 2009, Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved

The future burden of cancer in London compared with England


Victoria H. Coupland, Information Analyst1
Catherine Okello, Information Analyst1
Elizabeth A. Davies, Medical Director and Senior Lecturer in Cancer and Public Health1
Freddie Bray, Epidemiologist2
Henrik Møller, Director and Professor of Cancer Epidemiology1

1 King's College London, Thames Cancer Registry, 42 Weston Street, London SE1 3QD, UK
2 Cancer Registry of Norway, Montebello, N-0310 Oslo, Norway


Address correspondence to Victoria H. Coupland, E-mail: victoria.coupland{at}kcl.ac.uk


  Abstract

Background The future burden of cancer in England is predicted to increase by 33% by 2020. Those planning health services are often interested in predictions at a local level. This study aimed to estimate the future burden of cancer in London and compare this with estimates for England.

Methods Predictions for London were based on cancer registration data (1985–2003) and population projections up until 2024. The number of future cases and age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were projected using an age–period–cohort model developed for the analysis of cancer trends and projections in the Nordic countries. Estimates for England were taken from an earlier publication.

Results In London, ASRs for all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) decreased for both sexes, whereas in England, ASRs decreased in males and increased slightly in females. In London, the number of cases for both sexes is predicted to increase from ~27 000 in 2002 to ~28 500 in 2022, an increase of 5%. In England, a greater increase is predicted, from ~224 000 in 2001 to ~299 000 in 2020, an increase of 33%.

Conclusions Projections of the future burden of cancer are particularly sensitive to demographic population trends. They are likely to be different for cities compared with rural areas or entire countries.

Keywords: cancer burden, England, epidemiology, incidence, London, predictions


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