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Journal of Public Health Advance Access published online on September 9, 2005
Journal of Public Health, doi:10.1093/pubmed/fdi051
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© The Author 2005, Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved.

Article

Excess winter morbidity among older people at risk of cold homes: a population-based study in a London borough

Janet Rudge 1* and Robert Gilchrist 2

1 Department of Architecture and Spatial Design, Low Energy Architecture Research Unit (LEARN), London Metropolitan University, Spring House, 40-44 Holloway Road, London N7 8JL, UK
2 The Statistics, Operational Research and Mathematics Research Centre (STORM), London Metropolitan University, 2-16 Eden Grove, London N7 8EA, UK

* To whom correspondence should be addressed.
Janet Rudge, E-mail: j.rudge{at}londonmet.ac.uk


  Abstract

Background Fuel poverty frequently affects older low-income households, in homes that are difficult to heat. Excess winter deaths occurring in Britain are widely attributed to effects of cold. This pilot study examined the demonstrability of a relationship between older people’s health and fuel poverty risk, using morbidity data.

Methods An observational, population-based study was made of 25 000 residents aged ≥65 years in the London Borough of Newham (LBN). Using Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data over 1993-1997, anonymized at enumeration district (ED) level, we calculated excess winter morbidity, based on emergency hospital episodes for all respiratory diagnosis codes. EDs were variously aggregated after ranking against a proposed Fuel Poverty Risk Index (FPR), including factors of energy inefficient housing, low income, householder age and under occupation.

Results FPR is a predictor of excess winter morbidity. In particular, FPR was observed showing a significant relationship with high winter morbidity counts for 2 of 4 years studied. Using FPR as a two-level factor (high and non-high), the model provides odds ratios: for 1993, winter/summer morbidity ratio for high FPR is 1.7 higher than the corresponding ratio for non-high FPR [95% confidence interval (CI)= 1.1-2.7], and for 1996, the odds ratio is 1.6 (95% CI = 0.9-2.8). In a regression with grouped EDs, having allowed for FPR, no other variables in our set contribute to the difference between winter and summer morbidity counts.

Conclusions Results may indicate supporting evidence of a relationship between energy inefficient housing and winter respiratory disease among older people, with public health implications for increasing health-driven energy efficiency housing interventions.

Keywords: cold, excess winter morbidity, housing, older people.
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